Tightening the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) in line with the EU Green Deal would dramatically speed up the decarbonization of Europe’s power sector – and likely cause a demise of the coal industry. In a new study a team of researchers from Potsdam, Germany has quantified the substantial shifts Europe’s electricity system is about to undergo when the newly decided EU climate target gets implemented.
“Once the EU translates their recently adjusted target of cutting emissions by at least 55% in 2030 in comparison to 1990 into tighter EU ETS caps, the electricity sector will see fundamental changes surprisingly soon,” says Robert Pietzcker from the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), one of the lead authors. “In our computer simulations of the new ambitious targets, this would mean that renewables would contribute almost three fourths of the power generation already in 2030 and we would reach zero emissions in the power sector as soon as by 2040. Once the change is initiated, it can gain speed in an unprecedented way.”
“All things considered, the 55% target will have massive consequences for the power sector,” says Sebastian Osorio from PIK, another lead author. “Under the previous EU climate mitigation target – which meant reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by merely 40% – it was expected that the carbon price within the EU emissions trading system would rise to 35€ per tonne CO2 until 2030. Yet by adhering to the new target of minus 55%, carbon prices in the ETS would in fact more than triple to roughly 130€ per tonne CO2 in 2030. This would be the end of coal-generated power as we know it – a meager 17 terrawatt hours in 2030, 2% of what it was in 2015.”