The effects will become increasingly visible as timber harvests in Central Europe decline and sanctions against Russia lead to a drop in imports of forest products.
As of today, Central European roundwood markets are at a turning point. One of the main reasons for this is the spruce bark beetle infestation that has spread across much of the region. Over the past four years, the forests have suffered extensive damage, resulting in a temporary increase in logging, timber production, and subsequent log exports.
So much so that, the infestation in the Czech Republic and Germany, has resulted in record timber harvests in recent years. Specifically, from 2017 to 2021, annual roundwood removals increased by 15%, reaching an unsustainable level.
It was in 2019 that the amount of bark beetle-damaged wood peaked. As for subsequent years, the decrease was 5% in 2020, and 24% in 2021. For the time being, the volume of damaged wood is estimated to fall by 10-20% per year. Thus, levels close to the average would be reached in 2025.
Future of Central European timber supply
The new Focus Report, “Central European Roundwood Markets – Softwood Supply Outlook”, analyzes the future of Central European timber supply up to 2030. It also looks at the implications for the region’s forest industries and the likely impact on global log and softwood lumber patterns.
As a result of the current situation, increased lumber supply has been absorbed by domestic sawmills and increased log exports. Thus, the additional supply of lumber at competitive prices has favored the expansion of the Central European sawmill industry.
In addition, increased supplies of sawdust and chips from sawmills have enabled the growth of wood pellet and panel production.
However, as lumber harvests have peaked, log exporters and consumers will have to adjust to a reduced supply of softwood logs in the coming years.
Falling lumber production in Central Europe may mean that the region will shift from being a net log exporter to being an importer. The situation is also expected to be exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has led to sanctions on the import of virtually all forest products from Russia and Belarus into Europe. Here, the figure involved is almost 14 million m3 of logs and 9 million m3 of softwood lumber in 2021.
As a result, sawmills will have to refocus on conversion performance and small-diameter sawing capacities. Meanwhile, fiber industries will have to consider alternative species and sources of wood fiber. Finally, international markets will have to adapt to the reduced supply of log and softwood lumber exports from Europe.
Source: Wood Resources International LLC (2022)